Occam’s Razor

Occam’s Razor is a problem-solving principle. Simply stated:

“Other things being equal, simpler explanations are generally better than more complex ones.”

OR
“Among competing hypotheses that fit the facts, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.”

The principle isn’t meant to say which hypothesis is true or false but rather gives direction about which hypothesis to examine first. A simpler hypothesis is easier to disprove.

An important phrase to note is “fit the facts”. If one hypothesis, however simple, does not fit the facts or explain the observed phenomena, then it can be tossed straightaway.

For example, if you press the power button on your computer and nothing happens, you could assume that someone sneaked into your house and replaced your computer with a seemingly identical but non-working version. But it is far more likely that (and easier to check whether) the power cord is unplugged. The next-simplest hypothesis might be that a circuit breaker was tripped.

While the complex conspiracy theory could be true, it is certainly the least probable based on the facts I listed, and it would be more difficult to prove or disprove. Checking the power cord and visiting your circuit breaker panel are easy ways to prove or disprove the simpler hypotheses.

Another example, which happens at my house frequently: I arrange the four chairs on the back porch neatly around the table, but sometimes find them in disarray the following morning. Simplest hypothesis: the wind knocked them down. Next-simplest: wild or stray animals got into the yard and knocked them down. Conspiracy theory: Members of a top-secret government agency came into the fenced back yard during the night and moved the chairs in order to negatively affect my mental health.

I have applied this principle to the story of Noah’s Ark, regarding its veracity, taking into account known facts. The simplest explanation is that it just didn’t happen — the story was simply a cultural myth — or written as allegory to be used as a teaching tool. A close second is that someone did survive a localized flood, perhaps on a raft or small boat, but the tale was exaggerated greatly over several generations of retelling. The least-simple explanation is that it happened exactly as the Bible said it did, which requires God to have performed thousands of miracles, both small and large, to make today’s facts fit the narrative.